Thesis - Corporate valuation of Carlsberg - ID:05617 - Volum 77 pagini
Categoria : Marketing si Logistica
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1. Introduction 5
1.1 Problem Statement 5
2. Methodology 6
2.1 Empirical data 6
2.2 Structure of the thesis 6
2.3 Delimitations 7
2.4 Theory 7
2.5 Choice of valuation models 7
2.5.1 Discounted cash flow based valuation models 8
2.5.2 Alternatives to discounted cash flow models 10
3. Company profile 11
3.1 Historical overview 11
3.2 Carlsberg today 12
3.3 Vision and strategy 12
3.4 Markets 14
3.4.1 Western Europe 14
3.4.2 Eastern Europe 14
3.4.3 Asia 15
3.5 Peer Group 15
4. Business strategy analysis 16
4.1 The external environment 17
4.1.1 The macroIenvironment 17
4.1.2 The Industry 20
4.2 The internal environment 22
4.2.1 Carlsberg’s value chain 22
4.2.2 Carlsberg’s growth strategy 24
4.3 SWOT 25
5. Financial analysis 27
5.1 Reorganizing financial statements 27
5.2 Historical performance 29
5.2.1 Revenue growth 29
5.2.2 Invested capital 32
5.2.3 NOPLAT 33
5.2.4 ROIC 34
5.2.5 Free Cash Flow 37
5.2.6 Liquidity 38
5.2.7 Solvency 39
6. Calculating WACC 40
6.1 Estimating components of WACC 40
6.2 Estimating WACC 43
7. Forecasting performance 43
7.1 Length and detail of the forecast 43
7.2 Estimating the budget 43
7.2.1 Revenue 44
7.2.2 Operating expenses 45
7.2.3 EBITA 46
7.2.4 Property Plant and Equipment 46
7.2.5 Capital Expenditure 46
7.2.6 Net working capital 47
8. Valuation 48
8.1 The DCFVmodel 48
8.2 The EPVmodel 48
8.3 Scenario Analysis 49
8.3.1 Base case 50
8.3.2 Best case 50
8.3.3 Worst case 51
8.3.4 Value adjusted by scenario analysis 54
8.4 Sensitivity analysis 54
8.5 Valuation by multiples 57
8.6 Summary of the valuation 58
9. Conclusion 59
10. Bibliography 61
11. Appendix 64
1.1 Problem Statement 5
2. Methodology 6
2.1 Empirical data 6
2.2 Structure of the thesis 6
2.3 Delimitations 7
2.4 Theory 7
2.5 Choice of valuation models 7
2.5.1 Discounted cash flow based valuation models 8
2.5.2 Alternatives to discounted cash flow models 10
3. Company profile 11
3.1 Historical overview 11
3.2 Carlsberg today 12
3.3 Vision and strategy 12
3.4 Markets 14
3.4.1 Western Europe 14
3.4.2 Eastern Europe 14
3.4.3 Asia 15
3.5 Peer Group 15
4. Business strategy analysis 16
4.1 The external environment 17
4.1.1 The macroIenvironment 17
4.1.2 The Industry 20
4.2 The internal environment 22
4.2.1 Carlsberg’s value chain 22
4.2.2 Carlsberg’s growth strategy 24
4.3 SWOT 25
5. Financial analysis 27
5.1 Reorganizing financial statements 27
5.2 Historical performance 29
5.2.1 Revenue growth 29
5.2.2 Invested capital 32
5.2.3 NOPLAT 33
5.2.4 ROIC 34
5.2.5 Free Cash Flow 37
5.2.6 Liquidity 38
5.2.7 Solvency 39
6. Calculating WACC 40
6.1 Estimating components of WACC 40
6.2 Estimating WACC 43
7. Forecasting performance 43
7.1 Length and detail of the forecast 43
7.2 Estimating the budget 43
7.2.1 Revenue 44
7.2.2 Operating expenses 45
7.2.3 EBITA 46
7.2.4 Property Plant and Equipment 46
7.2.5 Capital Expenditure 46
7.2.6 Net working capital 47
8. Valuation 48
8.1 The DCFVmodel 48
8.2 The EPVmodel 48
8.3 Scenario Analysis 49
8.3.1 Base case 50
8.3.2 Best case 50
8.3.3 Worst case 51
8.3.4 Value adjusted by scenario analysis 54
8.4 Sensitivity analysis 54
8.5 Valuation by multiples 57
8.6 Summary of the valuation 58
9. Conclusion 59
10. Bibliography 61
11. Appendix 64
